In its latest flood forecast, The Grand Forks National Weather Service office continues to indicate a low risk of significant flooding along the U.S. portion of the Red River.

Issued Thursday, the outlook is based on conditions through February 12th, and indicates minor to isolated moderate spring flooding is possible in some locations including Pembina and Grand Forks.

Snowfall this winter in the basin has been well below normal, with precipitation slightly below normal from rain and ice events. Soil moisture is around normal across the south, transitioning to well below normal near the international border.

Meanwhile, the latest projections continue to show the Pembina River will remain below flood stage at Walhalla and Neche.

The report noted, like in any year, precipitation, especially rain, through early spring will be the most important flood risk factor.

The next U.S. Red River flood outlook will be released February 29th.

Additional information from the report can be found below:

Snowmelt Flood Components:

1. Fall + Winter Precipitation and Soil Moisture: Much below normal to slightly below normal. Overall both fall (Sep-Nov 2022) and winter (December 2023-current) precipitation have been below normal for much of the basin. Soil moisture remains much lower than normal across the northern third of the basin with moderate to severe drought conditions while near average elsewhere.

2. Base Streamflow: Near to above normal. At the end of December, USGS analyses indicated that the Red River mainstem and its tributaries were flowing near to slightly higher than normal.

3. Frost Depth: Shallower than normal but variable. January cold formed a deeper frost layer across much of the basin; however, early February warmth allowed for some thawing to begin, especially in the south. Lake/river observations indicate ice cover is thinner and less consistent than normal due to mild temperatures.

4. Snowpack and Associated Water Content: Much below normal. Snowfall since Dec. 1st is running much below normal (10-50 percent of normal), lowest across the southern two-thirds of the basin. Little to no snow cover (and associated water content) in place with the exception of near the international border.

5. Future Conditions: Climate outlooks indicate above normal temperatures into spring. This will allow for early melting of any remaining snowpack and introduce the possibility of rain instead of snow through early spring.