Residents of southern Manitoba are being warned to brace for flooding this spring. In fact, flood officials say there is a high risk of significant flooding along the Red River between Emerson and Morris.

Fisaha Unduche is Executive Director of Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management with Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure. On Friday afternoon he provided a flood outlook.

Unduche says though there is below normal soil moisture in most Manitoba basins, there is above normal soil moisture in the U.S. portion of the Red River.

He notes most Manitoba basins have received between 60 and 140 centimetres of snow since November 1st. That means precipitation has been above normal to well above normal. However, the U.S. portion of the Red River basin has received up to 200 per cent of normal precipitation during that same period of time.

Other factors contributing to this flood outlook is that frost depth is normal to deeper than normal in most Manitoba watersheds because of below normal temperatures. And the spring climate outlook calls for normal to above normal precipitation for most Manitoba basins.

According to Unduche, with normal future weather conditions, levels along the Red River south of the floodway are expected to be near 2019 or 2020 water levels. With unfavourable future weather conditions, levels are expected to be near 2009 flood levels. However, with favourable future weather conditions, levels could be similar to 2013.

"The worst thing we don't want to see is a very heavy Colorado Low that we have seen in the past many major flood years," says Unduche. "We don't want to see those things because one Colorado Low system could bring up to 50 centimetres of snow."

It is expected that the Red River Floodway will go into operation this spring in order to reduce levels within Winnipeg.

When considering normal future weather conditions, Unduche says the 2020 flood at Emerson was still the 7th largest flood since 1913. He notes the Red River Floodway operated for 28 days that year, though there were minimal closures at Emerson, St. Jean and Morris. By comparison, the 2009 flood was the 4th largest flood.

Unduche says they are still assessing what could happen along Highway 75. He notes over the last decade the province has spent hundreds of millions of dollars to raise a portion of that highway.

"A very high chance the road will remain open," he says. "But we will have those details by March outlook."

Flood officials state there is also a high risk of moderate to significant flooding along the Roseau and Rat Rivers, though flows and levels are expected to remain below flood protection levels and community dikes.

As for lakes in southeastern Manitoba, there is a high risk of moderate flooding on lakes, including those in the Whiteshell.

"The Whiteshell lakes are already normal to above normal for this time of the year," notes Unduche.