Warmest winter on record for Steinbach; spring forecast released

Steinbach likely just came through the warmest winter ever recorded. That is according to David Phillips, Senior Climatologist with Environment Canada. 

In the meteorological world, winter runs from the start of December until the end of February. That makes March 1st the start of spring. Phillips says when you look back at the last three months in Steinbach, December averaged nearly nine degrees warmer than normal, January was almost five degrees warmer than normal, and February was just about seven degrees above average. 

The average temperature for those three months in Steinbach was -7.5 degrees when normally it is -14.2 degrees. That means, the average temperature this last winter was 6.7 degrees above average. 

Phillips says two of the other warmest winters on record were in 1997-98 and 1986-87. In 1997-98, the average temperature in Steinbach was -8.8 degrees, while in 1986-87 it was -9.9 degrees. 

Not only was the average temperature quite a bit warmer, but Phillips says there was also a lack of really cold days this year. He notes a cold day in Canada is one where the temperature drops to -20 degrees. This last winter there were only 17 of those days in Steinbach, when an average winter will have 46 of them. And, as for really cold days, not once did the temperature drop to -30 degrees this winter, compared to an average winter of 14 of them. He notes the coldest day was on January 14th when the temperature fell to -28.4 degrees. 

Late January saw temperatures climb well above freezing in southern Manitoba, turning streets into lakes in Steinbach.

All in all, Phillips says he is referring to the winter of 2023-24 in southern Manitoba as the lost season.

"It was almost cancelled," he says. "We've never cancelled winter in this country, but boy, I think 2023-24 is about as close as we could come."

Phillips says while he cannot say with 100 per cent certainty that there has never been a warmer winter in Steinbach, if there has been, it would probably have been back in the 1880s.

As for precipitation, Phillips says it is always difficult to measure snow, but he says this last winter Steinbach received less than 60 per cent of what is normal. 

Phillips says the El Nino was definitely a major contributor to the mild winter. 

"It was supersized, supercharged, came early, it was huge and intense, and it just dominated the weather across the globe," explains Phillips. "Droughts in some areas, floods in some areas and of course for Canada, from coast to coast to coast, milder than normal."

Warm weather in February put an end to the outdoor rink at the library in Steinbach.

As we look ahead to the spring months of March, April, and May, Phillips says just because winter was mild, that does not mean we will pay for it in spring. In fact, he says sometimes those conditions carry over from one season to the next and that is what he is forecasting for this year. 

"Certainly the period of March, April, May is clearly showing warmer than normal right across the country, except maybe in the Yukon or the Northwest Territories," says Phillips.

He is also calling for a wetter-than-normal spring for southern Manitoba. And, looking ahead to summer, Phillips says he is so confident, that he is already forecasting a hotter-than normal summer. 

But, if you had any thoughts that Friday's high of seven degrees would mark the end of the winter weather for 2023-24, guess again. 

"I wouldn't put away the snow shovel quite yet," he says. "I don't think we should write the obituary on wintery-like weather."

Not only because Manitoba normally receives 20 to 25 per cent of its annual snowfall after March 1st, but also because of the Montana Low that is currently winding up and on a crash course for southern Manitoba this weekend. Some areas west and north of the Red River Valley could see 20 to 30 centimetres of fresh snow, while areas like Steinbach could see lesser amounts combined with rain or freezing rain. 

"Could be the big storm of the winter so far in terms of precipitation," he points out.

Phillips says any talk of a Montana Low or Colorado Low strikes fear in the hearts of Manitobans, particularly because of what happened in 2022 with all those Colorado Lows that helped make it the wettest spring on record. 

Meanwhile, when it comes to the saying, 'in like a lamb, out like a lion' or vice versa, Phillips says though March might come in like a lamb, someone is going to poke that lion this weekend. With the heavy snow and stormy weather in the forecast, it will be more lion-like than lamb-like. Then, following that storm, Phillips says the start of next week will be more like frozen mutton, as overnight lows dip back into the -20 degree range. 

Phillips says it is these yo-yo temperatures and weather conditions that wear out the body as Canadians are constantly changing clothes.

"Today it might be jackets and by Sunday it could be snow pants," he says. "This kind of thing is why we spend more money on clothes than any other people in the world, not because we're fashion conscious, it is (because) we have lots of weather in this country."