Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure continues to monitor a significant precipitation system which is expected to bring 40 to 80 millimetres of rain mixed with snow over the weekend. The latest models indicate that the precipitation system may fall mostly as rain, although some snow or freezing rain may occur as well. There is a potential for high intensity thunderstorms in the Grand Forks area, which may result in a more rapid increase in water levels than previously expected.

Weather models do not fully agree on the exact location, amount and timing of the precipitation system, however, confidence is high that most central and southern Manitoba basins, including the United States portions of the Red, Souris, Pembina, Roseau River and Whiteshell basins, could receive 40 to 50 millimetres of precipitation with localized areas receiving up to 80 millimetres by Monday. An overland flood warning has been issued for areas that are expected to receive high intensity rainfalls. This area runs from the Saskatchewan border to Highway 12 and then from the U.S. border to the Trans Canada Highway.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above zero until early next week for most parts of southern and central Manitoba. These forecasted temperatures along with the forecasted precipitation will create runoff in the coming days and water levels will start rising in most southern and central rivers and tributaries. Peak flows on the Red River are not expected to arrive until late April or early May.

There is a risk of moderate to major flooding for the Red River basin. The Red River Floodway is expected to be brought back into operation early next week as water levels rise.

Pumping operations are underway at St. Adolphe and Dominion City. Crews continue to monitor and are prepared to restart pumping at other communities as water levels rise. Water levels on several drains and creeks have caused or threatened localized flooding due to ice jams or snow blockages. The department continues to monitor provincial drains, and intervene when necessary to remove obstructions and restore flow.

There is a risk of moderate flooding in the eastern region including the Roseau and Rat rivers and the Whiteshell Lakes area. Some weather models predict high intensity rainfall which could lead to overland flooding in parts of the Roseau River basin.

Since Thursday, the Red River has dropped six inches at Emerson to 773.22 feet and dropped three inches at Letellier to 770.19 feet. During that same time, the Red has risen less than one inch at St. Jean to 764.43 feet, risen one inch at Morris to 760.79 feet, risen four inches at Ste. Agathe to 753.87 feet and risen seven inches at St. Adolphe to 751.14 feet.

Since Thursday, the Roseau River has risen less than one inch at Gardenton to 964.51 feet and gone up six inches at Dominion City (PR 200) to 772.70 feet.

And, since Thursday, the Rat River has gone up 19 inches at Otterburne to 765.39 feet.