The National Weather Service says there is both good news and bad news in their latest spring flood outlook.
The outlook, released Thursday, is reporting little change to what was released in their January 23rd outlook. Amanda Lee says significant runoff is expected along the Red River between Fargo and Pembina, with flood levels beings as high or higher than the spring of 2019.
The National Weather Service says the good news is that there has been little change since January 23rd. This is the result of there being no storms since mid-January and precipitation being a bit below normal. In addition to that, frost depths are still shallow and quite variable thanks to the generally mild conditions. The National Weather Service says heavy snow cover most of the season has kept frost depths somewhat shallow across the far southern Red River Valley at 6 to 12 inches. Frost at most locations north of Fargo is 10 to 30 inches deep. Lake and river ice thickness is less than normal and quite variable.
On the flip side, the National Weather Service says the fact there has been little change since the January 23rd outlook, is also bad news. Lee says very wet soils and high base streamflows persist. Also, the snowpack still remains at or above normal, leading to high runoff potential. The National Weather Service says since December 1st, snowfall has been running 150 to 300 per cent of normal.
Total precipitation measured across the basin from September 1st through February 9th was 4 to 8 inches above the long-term normal for the Red River Basin. During that period, it was the 3rd wettest on record for Fargo and the wettest for Grand Forks.
Lee says there is obviously still a lot that can happen this winter and spring. Potential flood factors include how quickly the warmup happens and whether or not any rain falls.
According to Lee, there is not much precipitation being forecast for the next few weeks. However, climate outlooks continue to indicate an increased risk for a cooler and wetter late winter and early spring, which increases the risk for rapid and/ or rainfall enhanced runoff.
The National Weather Service says the bottom line is that the risk of significant flooding continues to be substantial, running above long-term historical average across the Red River and Devils Lake Basins. It suggests this spring could be a Top 5 flood year.
The National Weather Service is expected to release its next spring flood outlook on February 27th.
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