Meteorologist says warm weather could last through Christmas

It is another day with above-zero temperatures in Steinbach. 

Environment Canada is calling for a high of four degrees on Thursday. That is still well below the all-time high of 8.0 degrees set in 1998, however, it is considerably warmer than the normal high for this time of year of -10 degrees. So far in December, eight of the 14 days have had temperatures above the freezing mark in Steinbach. 

Meteorologist Scott Kehler with Weatherlogics says two factors are causing this weather. First of all, he says the El Nino is causing warm weather across most of Canada, particularly in the western portion of the country. But, then more locally, he notes the jet stream has been displaced well off to the north. 

Kehler says the polar vortex is nowhere to be found in North America, allowing the warm air to flow across the Prairies from the west. The polar vortex is an area of very cold air that tends to be located near the North Pole, which is known to bring Arctic blasts of cold air. 

According to Kehler, there is no sign of our weather pattern changing anytime soon. He notes it appears the rest of December will see mild temperatures, meaning this month should end with an average temperature that is well above normal. Kehler says the way it looks right now; this pattern could possibly change in mid-January.

"There are signs that the pattern could change cold," says Kehler. "But given the influence of El Nino, that's not as certain as we might normally like to be."

Meanwhile, for those still holding out hope for a brown Christmas, Kehler is not ruling that out. A brown Christmas happens when there is less than two centimetres of snow on the ground at 6 am CST on December 25th. Kehler says a large part of southeastern Manitoba and the Red River Valley currently has four centimetres of snow on the ground. 

"So, if we were to see just a few more days of above freezing temperatures, that could drop the snow depth below two centimetres," explains Kehler. "And if you drop below two centimetres, that fits the criteria for a brown Christmas."

And, Kehler says because there is very little snow in the forecast between now and Christmas, it is not out of the question for Steinbach to see a brown Christmas.

Kehler adds we are currently in a very dry pattern and there are no storms in the forecast. He notes the long-range forecast between now and Christmas shows less than one centimetre of snow but cautions that can certainly change at this time of year.

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