A Meteorologist with Environment Canada says she doesn't think southern Manitoba will be shutout this time around.
Natalie Hasell is referring to the rain being forecast for this part of the province later this week. There were many days this summer where Environment Canada called for a chance of showers that never transpired. But with precipitation in the forecast for Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday, Hasell says she is pretty confident some rain will fall.
"The models have been pointing at this since last week," says Hasell. "Now that we're even closer to it, the models are pointing to it with great certainty."
She notes it is too early to forecast how much rain will fall, but Hasell says some models are suggesting between 25 and 35 millimetres for this part of the province. She says a low-pressure system is coming in, though there is still some uncertainty with where this trough line will line up. Hasell adds there might be some embedded stronger convection which could bring not only showers but thunderstorms.
"It's kind of a wait and see scenario at this point," says Hasell.
The summer of 2017 has so far been much drier than normal. Steinbach received about 25 mm of rain in May (normal is 67 mm), 87 mm of rain in June (normal is 101 mm), 28 mm of rain in July (normal is 93 mm) and about 12 mm of rain in August (normal is 73 mm). That means for those four months, rainfall in Steinbach was about 45 percent of normal.
Meanwhile, Hasell says we have likely had our last day of 30 degrees for 2017. She expects this week will be the official turning point where fall weather is ushered in.