If you recall what the weather was like last September in southern Manitoba, do not expect a repeat this year.

David Phillips is Senior Climatologist with Environment Canada. He says last September saw a harsh transition from summer to fall with a killing frost. Fast forward 12 months, and Phillips is calling for a warmer than normal September and a warmer than normal fall for southern Manitoba.

"I still think there's a lot of good summerlike days," says Phillips.

He points to Labour Day weekend temperatures that are forecast to be in the low to mid 20's, when 22 degrees is the normal high for this time of year.

But, Phillips says clearly summer is waning. He points to the fact we lose about three and a half minutes of daylight each day this time of year. By September 26th, there will be more nighttime hours than daytime hours. And, with the sun now lower in the sky, the intensity of the sun is not as great.

"It's that time of year where we really see two or three days of summerlike weather and then followed by maybe a taste, a teaser of fall-like weather," he says.

Phillips notes it was not even that many years ago when September was the warmest month of the entire summer. Though he says that was more of a reflection of the cool temperatures leading up to September.

In terms of frost, Phillips says the average first day of frost in southern Manitoba is September 17th. He notes fifty per cent of the time, southern Manitoba gets its first frost by mid-September and ninety per cent of the time it arrives by the end of September. Phillips notes ten per cent of the time we get a frost already in August, though that seems highly unlikely this year.

"There will be frost on the pumpkin," says Phillips. "You will probably have your first dusting of snow before Remembrance Day, those are typically in the fall picture."

If you are hoping for a few more weeks without frost, Phillips says you should want to see clouds in the forecast. He notes a day with sunshine and a clear sky is a recipe for frost. Phillips explains cloud cover will at least prevent the ground from losing all of its heat overnight.

According to Phillips, a warmer than normal fall would follow the trend of what has been a warmer than normal summer. He says June and July were each about one degree above average, while August was near normal. With 30 degrees often viewed as a benchmark for a hot day, Phillips says there were about a dozen of those in 2019, which is near par. He recalls on June 7th the mercury reached nearly 36 degrees in Steinbach.

"Hey, I've seen far worse summers," says Phillips. "You wouldn't want to be in Edmonton. Edmonton they had one of the wettest, coolest summers on record and southern Manitoba, I think conditions were pretty good."