Given the wild shifts in the tectonic plates of education, the President of the Manitoba Teachers Society (MTS) says a teacher shortage could be imminent.

“I think it’s safe to say that there exists a potential for that,” states James Bedford.

Throughout the year, divisions have strained to fill the itinerant positions made necessary by COVID-19 and Bedford says more possible changes resulting from the newly released education review may make teachers an even more rare and valuable resource. 

“Given the difficulties this year, I think it is fair to say that a lot of our members are giving thought to whether the teaching profession is something they want to stay in.”

Last fall, more than 50 per cent of teachers polled by MTS during a town hall meeting said they were considering changing careers or retirement, Bedford says that stat could be indicative of a disparity between students and teachers next school year.

He notes there are two points in the year where an educator is allowed to announce their retirement: towards the end of the calendar year in December, and once summer holidays hit.

“We haven’t seen any substantive uptake of [retirements] in December,” Beford concedes, “but that doesn’t mean we won’t see that in June.”

Bedford says perhaps the biggest issue at hand is the ongoing wage freeze for Manitoba educators, a factor that will likely change as the K-12 Education Review takes effect. Prior to the review’s release, he says divisions and their local unions were made to hash out collective agreements privately.

“If one school division has a collective agreement that is up to date and settled, a teacher is going to make more money working in that school division than in one where there is no settlement,” explains Bedford who says a teacher could, with due reason, leave one division for higher pay in another. Those circumstances, he says, could cause teacher deficits in specific regions that had not been able to negotiate. Now, however, a wholly new set of problems may arise.

If Bill 64, the Education Modernization Act, is passed in its entirety, all teachers will be centralized under one union and the negotiations that have been taking place independently for months or even years could be voided. While this would, in some ways, negate the issue of teachers swapping divisions for better pay, many are afraid the government will decrease salaries across the board once they have full control.

The Hanover School Division, meanwhile, says they have noticed a general decrease in job applications, but have no staffing issues or concerns at the present time.