When it comes to agriculture a number of outside influences from weather to politics, can have a major impact on your operation.
In the last couple of years, supply chain challenges have had a major impact on everything including agriculture.
Another key factor right now is the Russia/Ukraine war.
Geopolitical economist Peter Zeihan says we're in a situation where the world's number one wheat exporter is deliberately destroying the fifth largest wheat exporter.
"We've seen that the Russians have turned to targeting civilian infrastructure. In the winter, that means going after electricity generation. By the time we get to summer, I have no doubt they're going to pivot and start going after agricultural processing, collection and distribution as well. So this really is the end of Ukraine as a player. And it's an open question of how large of an output that the Russians can maintain without access to foreign technology or inputs or machinery or insurance."
With the impact of the war between two key wheat-producing countries, wheat prices have taken a substantial jump.
Another key focus and area of discussion around agriculture at the grassroots and political level in many countries right now is fertilizer use.
In Sri Lanka, the government saw major protests after it banned synthetic fertilizers and pesticides in a move towards organic farming, however, the move resulted in a major downturn in production. The country would later allow fertilizer to be imported under open account terms.
Meantime, the Canadian government has announced a 30 percent fertilizer emissions reduction target by 2030.
That sparked a lot of concern from producers that it could lead to a fertilizer ban,
Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau quickly clarified they were not banning fertilizer, that they wanted to see a reduction in fertilizer emissions.
"We know that farmers need this input and we have to use it the best way possible. We have to bring as many farmers as possible into this movement. I know many farmers already apply the 4-R to the greatest extent, but many more don't know about it yet, or have not joined the movement yet."
She notes that their approach is to provide incentives to farmers through the on-farm Climate Action Fund to adopt best use practices, and are investing in "Living Labs" R & D to continue to find new options and opportunities for farmers.
In speaking at Manitoba Ag Days on Tuesday, Zeihan says overall when it comes to the future of agriculture growth in North America, we need to double the size of our industrial plants in order to make up for the fall of manufacturing centres elsewhere - like China.
He says it's going to be a massive growth story for us here.
"For your part of the world, oh my god, the agricultural explosion that we are going to see over the next 40 years. Global demand for foodstuffs is going to drop, that's unavoidable with deglobalization, but global supply for foodstuffs is going to absolutely crater. So there may be a smaller pie out there, but the slice of it that the upper Midwest and the prairies are going to be getting is just going to be massive in compared to what it is right now."
Overall, he feels North American agriculture is the sector that will do the best globally for the next four decades.
Zeihan has published a number of books relating to geopolitics including his latest "The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning - Mapping The Collapse Of Globalization".
To hear Glenda-Lee's conversation with geopolitical economist Peter Zeihan click on the link below.