A meteorologist says this week's weather should be a sign of things to come for the rest of September. And September's weather should be a sign of things to come for fall in Southern Manitoba. Scott Kehler with Weatherlogics says after a week of cooler weather, we should see a return to above-normal temperatures this week. The normal high for September 8th in Steinbach is 20 degrees. This week is expected to produce daily high temperatures ranging from 23 to 27 degrees. Kehler says this change in weather is a result of a reversal in the jet stream. "It was dipped way down to the south, and that allowed some unusually cold Arctic air to filter across Southern Manitoba," explains Kehler. "But now the jet stream is deflecting back up to the north, and so that's creating more of a westerly or southwesterly flow, which is bringing up warmer air from the United States." As a result, temperatures will climb back into the mid-20s. "So, while it seemed like fall maybe had arrived early, it looks like we still got a little bit of summer-like weather to go," he says. In fact, Kehler says that it looks like the rest of September should have normal or even above normal temperatures. Weatherlogics has issued its fall weather outlook. When it comes to temperature, Weatherlogics mirrors what Environment Canada is forecasting. In late August, Senior Climatologist David Phillips with Environment Canada issued his fall weather outlook, calling for September, October, and November to be warmer and wetter than normal for Southern Manitoba. "We are also expecting the fall will be warmer than normal," says Kehler. However, as far as precipitation, Kehler says they are not seeing a strong trend towards a wetter-than-normal fall. He anticipates a normal amount of rain, which probably means one or two systems that each bring a steady rainfall. Kehler explains that with the warmer weather, it does not appear that we will see a lot of rainy days. Kehler says one thing that is hard to predict is when Southern Manitoba might see its first snowfall. He notes that though we can occasionally get a decent snowfall in October, rarely does it stick around for the entire winter. However, he says that with the anticipated warm fall, it is doubtful that we will transition to winter weather earlier than normal. Speaking of winter, The Old Farmer's Almanac has already released its winter weather outlook for Southern Manitoba, calling for the season to be mild and wet. Kehler cautions against placing too much trust in The Old Farmer's Almanac. "I really don't care much about what The (Old) Farmer's Almanac says because they have stated that they are not meteorologists and they use some sort of a technique that they don't really disclose," explains Kehler. "So, I can't say that I've ever found their outlooks to be very accurate." With that in mind, Kehler says Weatherlogics' forecast differs from The Old Farmer's Almanac. First of all, he says the idea of forecasting a wet winter with a lot of rain in Southern Manitoba does not even make sense. "Because we don't get rain in the winter months here," he says. "Maybe a millimetre or two, but rain is really not something we see at all. So, I would discount that entirely." Kehler says Weatherlogics is calling for a winter in Southern Manitoba that is colder and snowier than normal. He explains that the reason for that is because a La Nina is developing in the Pacific Ocean. And, Kehler says La Ninas tend to favour colder and snowier winters on the Prairies. On top of that, there are also now warmer temperatures in the North Pacific. He says when you look back at some of the very cold and snowy winters in recent memory, including 1996/97, 2013/14, or 2021/22, these all had the same pattern of a La Nina, along with warmer temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean. "And that seems to favour a jet stream which carries a lot of Alberta Clippers through Southern Manitoba, as well as a lot of cold air out of the north," he explains. "So, overall, our forecast at this point is calling for cold and snowy weather, probably starting in December and then carrying through the rest of the winter."