"We are in good shape right now...if the weather holds up."

That was the message from Manitoba's Infrastructure Minister in releasing our province's first flood outlook of the season on Thursday afternoon.

Ron Schuler says southern Manitoba has been enjoying just the kind of weather that is needed leading up to the spring thaw.

"Future snow and future spring rain will determine the extent of spring runoff and potential high water situations along the Red River," says Schuler.

Schuler says a positive factor has been the rate of snow sublimation. Snow sublimation is the direct transition of snow to vapour. Schuler says the moisture content of the snow has come down throughout the Red River Basin, which is an important factor.

"We've seen a lot of sublimation taking place," he says. "Not just here in Manitoba, but we noticed it substantially in the Dakotas."

Manitoba Infrastructure's Hydrologic Forecast Centre is modelling the current conditions with three possible future weather scenarios. With favourable conditions, forecasters expect similar water levels to 2019. Last year, the Red River Floodway was put into service but Highway 75 from Winnipeg to Emerson remained open.

Schuler says average weather conditions this spring will result in water levels similar to 2011 along the Red River. In that year, Highway 75 was closed for 29 days.

Unfavourable weather could lead to a run-off nearing 2009 levels. That year, Highway 75 was closed for 37 days.

While southern Manitoba is calling for a chance of minimal flooding, the National Weather Service says the risk for significant flooding continues to be substantial for areas along the Red River, south of the border. It says the risk of major flooding is greater than 65 per cent along the Red River at Pembina, Grand Forks and Fargo.

Schuler says the reason why Manitoba's flood forecast seems more favourable is because we have received much less snow than Fargo. In fact, the National Weather Service says for much of the Red River Basin, snowfall has been between 125 and 275 per cent above normal since December 1st.

"We will have a lot more room to absorb water," says Schuler.