The chance for a significant flood in the U.S. portion of the Red River Valley is "substantial", according to the second flood outlook issued by the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, North Dakota.

Above normal runoff is likely as significant snowfall in late January and February has created a substantial snowpack in the valley, according to Warning Coordination Meteorologist Greg Gust.

"What has also changed is the weather outlook for March and April. Even though there is an official weak El Nino finally out there, it's not really affecting the atmosphere as it normally would, so we're expecting colder than normal conditions to persist for the next few weeks and well into March. That could mean that the thaw will happen later and late thaws tend to lean toward a higher runoff."

The snowpack combined with a fairly deep frost could be major factors in the amount of runoff that is generated.

Gust says the severity of the flooding will depend on how much precipitation is received in March and the timing of the spring thaw.

"The highest amount of water is sitting in a chunk between Grand Forks and Fargo. The area south of Fargo also had a fair amount of rain throughout the summer and managed to get the soil moisture up quite a bit, which helps increase the rate of runoff coming into the Red River."

Manitoba is expected to issue its first flood forecast later this month.