One market analyst agrees with Stats Canada's prediction a record canola crop could be harvested on the Prairies this fall. Pro Farmer Canada's Mike Jubinville notes the 13.2 million tonne figure comes in on the lower end of trade expectations, adding he believes the demand component of the canola market will be able to consume a large portion of this crop.

As soon as the report came out Wednesday morning, canola jumped 4 to 5 dollars per tonne, but Jubinville feels where the market goes from here will be driven predominantly by external factors. He suggests those include outside financial market gyrations that have a spill-over effect across all commodity sectors, or more specifically the issues developing with the U.S. soybean crop related to warmer, drier conditions of late that are thought to be impacting yield.

Jubinville says if the soybean market remains strong, noting it is currently testing the upper end of what has been a multi-month sideways trading range, and the Canadian canola crop does come in short, it could mean canola may play catch up to the soybean market in the coming weeks.

Jubinville feels, for the most part, the numbers included in Wednesday's Principal Field Crop Production report fell within trade expectations. He notes there a couple of notable crops that did come in low though; flax seed and oats.

He tells us estimated flax seed production of only 365,000 tonnes is quite short, and suggests to him the supply-demand balance in North America is going to be very tight. Similarly, Jubinville says the 2.9 million tonne oat crop expected this fall is also quite small compared to traditional production numbers. Given the smallest oat crop on record in the United States this year, he feels North American supplies are going to be tight in the year ahead.